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API-provided intent hashes (cases S01/S03/S07/S16/S17, 20 Oct-3 Nov scope) were not found in the indexed intents.near logs; the source discrepancy is documented and unresolved. 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profile only; the effective fee rate shows how fees are constructed from volume, which is exactly the mechanical relationship any fee-on-volume model 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are parallel qualified observations; never summed; agreement would not be independent confirmation (shared Dune lineage); the reconciliation stays open (OQ-11)","provider_gross_fees_usd|SRC-LLAMA-vs-SRC-DASHBOARD":{"differing_days":90,"overlapping_days":90,"max_relative_difference":"6.117931315045802962512488597367620867903218800225880717605664393379957430172451240172016854176621346"},"provider_intents_volume_usd|SRC-LLAMA-vs-SRC-DASHBOARD":{"differing_days":90,"overlapping_days":90,"max_relative_difference":"0.5436194265396480477787139345183838673066012099717911625971407874603771443617057135421145809211476112"}},"daily_rows_present":90,"extract_coverage_days":90,"extract_uncovered_days":[],"extract_parse_error_days":[]},"spec_evaluations":[{"spec":{"family":"true_revenue","spec_id":"true_revenue_daily_v1","baseline":"difference_log","frequency":"daily","intercept":true,"config_hash":"922516990d60040d551e9f09b03e6b72e980097434420da31392ec7663fded38","spec_version":1,"declared_target":"protocol_revenue","dependent_variable":{"dimension":null,"metric_id":"protocol_revenue_usd"},"substantive_slopes":1,"explanatory_variables":[{"role":"activity","dimension":"SRC-LLAMA","metric_id":"provider_intents_volume_usd"}]},"sample":{"calendar_days":90,"complete_days":0,"excluded_days":[{"date":"2026-08-06","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-07","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-08","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-09","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-10","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-11","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-12","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-13","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-14","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-15","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-16","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-17","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-18","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-19","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-20","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-21","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-22","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-23","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-24","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-25","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-26","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-27","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-28","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-29","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-30","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-08-31","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-09-01","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-09-02","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-09-03","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-09-04","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-09-05","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-09-06","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-09-07","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-09-08","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-09-09","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-09-10","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-09-11","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-09-12","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations_oq01","series":"protocol_revenue_usd|"},{"date":"2026-09-13","reason":"gated_metric_no_observations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metric protocol_revenue_usd v1 is gated; every observation is null with a reason","severity":"rejecting"},{"code":"PROTOCOL_REVENUE_NOT_ESTABLISHED_OQ01","detail":"no verified daily economically attributable revenue ledger exists (OQ-01); treasury payouts and gross fees are not substitutes","severity":"rejecting"},{"code":"NONADJACENT_DAYS_FOR_DIFFERENCING","detail":"89 incomplete adjacent-day pair(s) dropped; differences are never taken across gaps","severity":"informational"},{"code":"INSUFFICIENT_COMPLETE_OBSERVATIONS","detail":"0 usable observation(s) < 60","severity":"rejecting"},{"code":"INSUFFICIENT_OBSERVATIONS_PER_PARAMETER","detail":"0 usable observation(s) < 20 (2 parameter(s) x 10)","severity":"rejecting"}]},{"spec":{"family":"proxy","spec_id":"gross_fee_activity_v1","baseline":"difference_log","frequency":"daily","intercept":true,"config_hash":"f5ae1bc621f2499decfaef642251d72746fb25d8e093a4fa88a35953ab697b06","spec_version":1,"declared_target":"gross_provider_fees","dependent_variable":{"dimension":"SRC-LLAMA","metric_id":"provider_gross_fees_usd"},"substantive_slopes":1,"explanatory_variables":[{"role":"activity","dimension":"SRC-LLAMA","metric_id":"provider_intents_volume_usd"}]},"sample":{"selected":true,"calendar_days":90,"complete_days":90,"excluded_days":[],"float64_finite":true,"verified_zero_days":[],"excluded_days_count":0,"required_parameters":2,"usable_observations":89,"min_required_observations":20,"nonadjacent_dropped_pairs":0,"zero_days_on_complete_days":[],"negative_days_on_complete_days":[]},"verdict":"READY_WITH_LIMITS","reason_codes":[{"code":"MECHANICAL_FEE_VOLUME_RELATIONSHIP","detail":"Provider gross fees are constructed from reported volume through an effective fee rate; a fee-on-volume association largely restates that construction and must be displayed before any coefficient interpretation. It is not demand elasticity, not sustainable revenue and not token value.","severity":"limit"},{"code":"PROXY_NOT_PROTOCOL_REVENUE","detail":"The fitted object is the explicitly named proxy only; it must never be labeled protocol revenue, and H1/H4 stay unresolved.","severity":"limit"},{"code":"OQ02_JUDGING_ACCEPTANCE_RISK","detail":"External acceptance of a transparent reproducible proxy association while H1/H4 remain unresolved is an open judging risk (OQ-02).","severity":"limit"},{"code":"SOURCE_REVISIONS_POSSIBLE","detail":"Provider-reported series are revisable; the saved snapshot is not declared final and a revision is a new dataset version, never an overwrite.","severity":"limit"},{"code":"SINGLE_PROVIDER_LINEAGE_NOT_INDEPENDENT","detail":"All model variables come from one provider lineage; their association is not independent confirmation of anything.","severity":"limit"},{"code":"SHORT_SAMPLE_NO_LONG_RUN_CLAIM","detail":"90 calendar day(s) cannot establish a long-term stable mechanism","severity":"limit"},{"code":"NO_CAUSAL_IDENTIFICATION","detail":"Observational association only: endogeneity, unobserved incentives, common market trends and provider construction remain limitations even with robust standard errors.","severity":"limit"}]},{"spec":{"family":"cohort","spec_id":"purchases_activity_v1","baseline":"difference_log","frequency":"daily","intercept":true,"config_hash":"fa0f65fd8b21affc55b80a373f6bf662f423fa03347fdc41c10111aef0028911","spec_version":1,"declared_target":"observed_cohort_acquisition","dependent_variable":{"dimension":null,"metric_id":"observed_near_purchases"},"substantive_slopes":1,"explanatory_variables":[{"role":"activity","dimension":"SRC-LLAMA","metric_id":"provider_intents_volume_usd"}]},"sample":{"calendar_days":90,"complete_days":90,"excluded_days":[],"float64_finite":true,"verified_zero_days":[],"excluded_days_count":0,"required_parameters":2,"usable_observations":89,"min_required_observations":20,"nonadjacent_dropped_pairs":0,"zero_days_on_complete_days":[],"negative_days_on_complete_days":[]},"verdict":"READY_WITH_LIMITS","reason_codes":[{"code":"COHORT_NOT_MARKET_DEMAND","detail":"The observed purchases cohort covers treasury-linked collector accounts 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the lag count is a fixed preregistered number, never selected from the sample or from p-values; sensitivity lags (3 and 14) belong to the NI-053 robustness artifacts, not to this baseline fit.","maxlags_rule":"fixed","use_correction":true}}},{"kind":"source_alternative","nobs":89,"sample":{"complete_days":90,"usable_observations":89},"status":"estimated","preset_id":"source_dashboard","rationale":"Preregistered source sensitivity: re-estimation on the parallel dashboard-reported provider series (same metric definitions, alternate source dimension). The variant is a robustness check, never a second result; both sources share Dune lineage, so agreement is not independent confirmation.","coefficients":[{"name":"const","t_stat":-0.7673078194213402,"p_value":0.4449759171632114,"ci95_low":-0.10105149566096921,"estimate":-0.028145177545132904,"ci95_high":0.044761140570703406,"std_error":0.03668042581184484},{"name":"dlog(provider_intents_volume_usd|SRC-DASHBOARD)","t_stat":11.153260715023508,"p_value":1.862841511435972e-18,"ci95_low":0.8449173920722496,"estimate":1.0281410979609282,"ci95_high":1.211364803849607,"std_error":0.0921830058698454}],"variant_settings":{"swaps":[{"role":"dependent","metric_id":"provider_gross_fees_usd","to_dimension":"SRC-DASHBOARD","from_dimension":"SRC-LLAMA"},{"role":"explanatory[0]","metric_id":"provider_intents_volume_usd","to_dimension":"SRC-DASHBOARD","from_dimension":"SRC-LLAMA"}],"variant_spec_id":"gross_fee_activity_v1+source_dashboard"},"variant_admission":{"note":"the variant is a preregistered robustness re-estimation, never a second published result; the gate evaluation is recorded so a rejected variant is never estimated","verdict":"READY_WITH_LIMITS","rejecting_codes":[]}},{"kind":"price_basis_alternative","status":"not_applicable","preset_id":"price_basis_end","rationale":"Preregistered price-mark sensitivity: re-estimation with every bound price-basis series moved to the end-of-day mark (docs/ECONOMETRIC_METHODOLOGY.md 'Preparation and transform policy': alternate daily price marks). It applies only where a bound variable is valued through a declared daily price basis; a model whose variables are provider-reported USD as-is records the preset as not applicable instead of inventing a variant.","reason_code":"no_bound_variable_to_swap","reason_detail":"no bound variable uses a swappable dimension of this kind; the variant is not applicable to this specification and is not invented (preset dimension kind: price_basis_alternative)"}]},"reproduction":{"command":"uv run --project apps/api python -m near_api.research diagnostics --archive-root <research root> --out-dir <output directory> --code-commit <git sha>","determinism":"no wall-clock fields; inputs pinned by SHA-256; the same inputs/config/lock render a byte-identical report on one platform; recorded floats compare under the declared tolerances","coefficient_atol":"0.0000000001","coefficient_rtol":"0.00000001"},"stationarity":{"note":"ADF (null: unit root) and KPSS (null: stationarity) on the declared LEVEL series over the gate's complete days; settings are preregistered and recorded with every result; undefined tests are null with a reason, never zero","tests":[{"role":"dependent","test":"adf","alpha":"0.05","status":"computed","p_value":0.22374995382307866,"settings":{"maxlag":7,"autolag":null,"rationale":"ADF on the level series with a fixed preregistered lag count (7, matching the documented weekly timing of the baseline) and autolag disabled: the lag count is never selected from the data, and the settings are recorded with the result instead of a pass/fail label (docs/ECONOMETRIC_METHODOLOGY.md 'Specification decision tree' step 2).","regression":"c","maxlag_rule":"fixed"},"used_lag":7,"dimension":"SRC-LLAMA","metric_id":"provider_gross_fees_usd","nobs_used":82,"statistic":-2.152983169350026,"series_key":"provider_gross_fees_usd|SRC-LLAMA","interpretation":"the unit-root null is not rejected; the level is treated as nonstationary","critical_values":{"1%":-3.512738056978279,"5%":-2.8974898650628984,"10%":-2.585948732897085},"null_hypothesis":"unit root","decision_at_alpha":"fail_to_reject_null"},{"role":"dependent","test":"kpss","alpha":"0.05","status":"computed","p_value":0.1,"settings":{"nlags":7,"rationale":"KPSS on the level series with a fixed preregistered lag count (7) as the complement of ADF (null of stationarity); short-sample disagreement between ADF and KPSS is recorded as a warning, never resolved by choosing the convenient answer.","nlags_rule":"fixed","regression":"c"},"dimension":"SRC-LLAMA","metric_id":"provider_gross_fees_usd","statistic":0.33713654274426447,"nlags_used":7,"series_key":"provider_gross_fees_usd|SRC-LLAMA","boundary_note":"statsmodels reports that the test statistic lies outside the p-value look-up table; the recorded p-value is a table boundary, not an exact tail probability","interpretation":"the stationarity null is not rejected; short samples make this weak evidence","critical_values":{"1%":0.739,"5%":0.463,"10%":0.347,"2.5%":0.574},"null_hypothesis":"stationarity","decision_at_alpha":"fail_to_reject_null","p_value_is_table_boundary":true},{"role":"explanatory","test":"adf","alpha":"0.05","status":"computed","p_value":0.12272979670455447,"settings":{"maxlag":7,"autolag":null,"rationale":"ADF on the level series with a fixed preregistered lag count (7, matching the documented weekly timing of the baseline) and autolag disabled: the lag count is never selected from the data, and the settings are recorded with the result instead of a pass/fail label (docs/ECONOMETRIC_METHODOLOGY.md 'Specification decision tree' step 2).","regression":"c","maxlag_rule":"fixed"},"used_lag":7,"dimension":"SRC-LLAMA","metric_id":"provider_intents_volume_usd","nobs_used":82,"statistic":-2.4708463638554967,"series_key":"provider_intents_volume_usd|SRC-LLAMA","interpretation":"the unit-root null is not rejected; the level is treated as nonstationary","critical_values":{"1%":-3.512738056978279,"5%":-2.8974898650628984,"10%":-2.585948732897085},"null_hypothesis":"unit root","decision_at_alpha":"fail_to_reject_null"},{"role":"explanatory","test":"kpss","alpha":"0.05","status":"computed","p_value":0.09303176511087341,"settings":{"nlags":7,"rationale":"KPSS on the level series with a fixed preregistered lag count (7) as the complement of ADF (null of stationarity); short-sample disagreement between ADF and KPSS is recorded as a warning, never resolved by choosing the convenient answer.","nlags_rule":"fixed","regression":"c"},"dimension":"SRC-LLAMA","metric_id":"provider_intents_volume_usd","statistic":0.3631663049427737,"nlags_used":7,"series_key":"provider_intents_volume_usd|SRC-LLAMA","interpretation":"the stationarity null is not rejected; short samples make this weak evidence","critical_values":{"1%":0.739,"5%":0.463,"10%":0.347,"2.5%":0.574},"null_hypothesis":"stationarity","decision_at_alpha":"fail_to_reject_null","p_value_is_table_boundary":false}]},"interpretation":{"sentences":["The fitted slope on 'dlog(provider_intents_volume_usd|SRC-LLAMA)' is 0.8542493147420771 (HAC standard error 0.14203451836578282, 95% CI [0.5719403297667323, 1.136558299717422]): a short-run association between contemporaneous transformed values of the declared series; it is not a causal effect and not an elasticity of demand.","The estimate uses 89 observations between 2026-08-07 and 2026-11-03; a window of 90 calendar days cannot establish a long-term stable mechanism.","The ADF unit-root null is not rejected for at least one level series; the level is treated as nonstationary and the preregistered difference baseline stays the published form.","The KPSS stationarity null is not rejected for any level series; short samples make this weak evidence, not proof of stationarity.","Ljung-Box does not reject the no-autocorrelation null at the declared lags; with this sample size that is weak evidence, not proof of a correct specification.","Breusch-Pagan indicates heteroskedasticity; the preregistered response is the already-declared HAC covariance — no reweighting, no outlier removal and no specification change was performed.","Influence check: 4 observation(s) exceed the preregistered Cook's distance threshold (0.0449438202247191); they are reported with dates and remain in the sample — removal requires an operational reason and a with/without report.","No protocol-revenue, sustainable-revenue, token-valuation, causal or demand-elasticity claim follows from this output: the fitted object is the named proxy association only, and the mechanical fee-on-volume construction means the slope largely restates the effective fee rate."],"template_id":"bounded_association_v1","authoring_note":"this is the bounded template default rendered by the diagnostics run; an authored operator interpretation, if any, is added at publication time (NI-054) and never replaces the attached limitations.","gate_limit_codes":["MECHANICAL_FEE_VOLUME_RELATIONSHIP","PROXY_NOT_PROTOCOL_REVENUE","OQ02_JUDGING_ACCEPTANCE_RISK","SOURCE_REVISIONS_POSSIBLE","SINGLE_PROVIDER_LINEAGE_NOT_INDEPENDENT","SHORT_SAMPLE_NO_LONG_RUN_CLAIM","NO_CAUSAL_IDENTIFICATION"],"rendering_policy":"every sentence below is rendered from a fixed template in research/models/diagnostics.py with recorded numbers and recorded test decisions substituted; there is no free-form generation, no causal wording and no sustainability wording anywhere in this module.","prohibited_labels":["protocol_revenue","token_valuation","causal_effect","demand_elasticity","sustainable_revenue"],"spec_limitation_notes":["Mechanical construction warning (docs/ECONOMETRIC_METHODOLOGY.md): provider gross fees are reported as a fee applied to the same provider's reported volume, so a fee-on-volume association largely restates the effective fee rate and must be displayed before any coefficient interpretation.","Both variables share one provider lineage (Dune); the association is not independent confirmation of anything.","The output is the named proxy association only; it is never protocol revenue (OQ-01) and H1/H4 stay unresolved (OQ-02 judging risk)."],"mechanical_construction_warning":"Mechanical construction warning (docs/ECONOMETRIC_METHODOLOGY.md): provider gross fees are reported as a fee applied to the same provider's reported volume, so a fee-on-volume association largely restates the effective fee rate and must be displayed before any coefficient interpretation."},"diagnostics_config":{"spec_id":"gross_fee_activity_v1","residuals":{"acf":{"fft":false,"alpha":"0.05","nlags":7,"bartlett_confint":true},"influence":{"measure":"cooks_distance","rationale":"Cook's distance from the plain OLS fit (leverage/residual geometry, independent of the HAC covariance) with the conventional 4/nobs flagging threshold taken from this config; flagged observations are reported with dates and never removed without an operational reason and a with/without report.","threshold_rule":"multiplier_over_nobs","threshold_multiplier":"4"},"ljung_box":{"lags":[3,7],"rationale":"Small lags 3 and the baseline weekly timing 7 (docs/ECONOMETRIC_METHODOLOGY.md 'Estimation and diagnostics': Ljung-Box at justified small lags); model_df consumes the design's estimated parameter count (intercept plus slopes), so the smallest declared lag must exceed it - lags 1/2 would have non-positive adjusted dof and are not declared instead of being reported as undefined.","model_df_rule":"parameters_count"},"heteroskedasticity":{"test":"breusch_pagan","robust":true,"exog_het":"design_exog","rationale":"Breusch-Pagan is the methodology's named example ('Estimation and diagnostics'); the fitted design columns are the heteroskedasticity regressors, no extra series is introduced, and the preregistered response to a rejection is the already-declared HAC covariance - no reweighting, no outlier removal."}},"fit_config":"gross_fee_activity_v1_fit.json","config_hash":"7c7c256109a74b3c6fa748b9d6369c450841bcfe01b817c3bcbff652cadbcce5","spec_config":"gross_fee_activity_v1.json","stationarity":{"adf":{"maxlag":7,"autolag":null,"rationale":"ADF on the level series with a fixed preregistered lag count (7, matching the documented weekly timing of the baseline) and autolag disabled: the lag count is never selected from the data, and the settings are recorded with the result instead of a pass/fail label (docs/ECONOMETRIC_METHODOLOGY.md 'Specification decision tree' step 2).","regression":"c","maxlag_rule":"fixed"},"kpss":{"nlags":7,"rationale":"KPSS on the level series with a fixed preregistered lag count (7) as the complement of ADF (null of stationarity); short-sample disagreement between ADF and KPSS is recorded as a warning, never resolved by choosing the convenient answer.","nlags_rule":"fixed","regression":"c"},"series":["dependent","explanatory"],"min_observations":20},"decision_alpha":"0.05","gate_policy_config":"readiness_gate_policy_v1.json","sensitivity_presets":[{"kind":"covariance_maxlags","maxlags":3,"preset_id":"hac_maxlags_3","rationale":"Preregistered HAC lag sensitivity (docs/ECONOMETRIC_METHODOLOGY.md 'Estimation and diagnostics': baseline maxlags 7, sensitivity 3 and 14 when the sample supports it); a fixed alternative lag count, never selected from the data."},{"kind":"covariance_maxlags","maxlags":14,"preset_id":"hac_maxlags_14","rationale":"Preregistered HAC lag sensitivity (docs/ECONOMETRIC_METHODOLOGY.md 'Estimation and diagnostics': baseline maxlags 7, sensitivity 3 and 14 when the sample supports it); a fixed alternative lag count, never selected from the data."},{"kind":"source_alternative","source":"SRC-DASHBOARD","preset_id":"source_dashboard","rationale":"Preregistered source sensitivity: re-estimation on the parallel dashboard-reported provider series (same metric definitions, alternate source dimension). The variant is a robustness check, never a second result; both sources share Dune lineage, so agreement is not independent confirmation.","applies_to_metric_ids":["provider_gross_fees_usd","provider_intents_volume_usd"]},{"kind":"price_basis_alternative","preset_id":"price_basis_end","rationale":"Preregistered price-mark sensitivity: re-estimation with every bound price-basis series moved to the end-of-day mark (docs/ECONOMETRIC_METHODOLOGY.md 'Preparation and transform policy': alternate daily price marks). It applies only where a bound variable is valued through a declared daily price basis; a model whose variables are provider-reported USD as-is records the preset as not applicable instead of inventing a variant.","price_basis":"end","applies_to_metric_ids":["near_price_usd"]}],"diagnostics_config_id":"gross_fee_activity_v1_diagnostics","interpretation_template":"bounded_association_v1","diagnostics_config_version":1},"estimation_results":{"nobs":89,"rank":2,"method":"OLS","source":"the NI-052 estimator's own result (fit.run_fit), re-checked under the declared tolerances","df_resid":87,"estimator":"ols","r_squared":0.4343881092500226,"covariance":{"type":"HAC","use_t":true,"kernel":"bartlett","maxlags":7,"rationale":"Newey-West HAC on daily observations with the documented baseline weekly timing (docs/ECONOMETRIC_METHODOLOGY.md 'Estimation and diagnostics': baseline maxlags 7); the lag count is a fixed preregistered number, never selected from the sample or from p-values; sensitivity lags (3 and 14) belong to the NI-053 robustness artifacts, not to this baseline fit.","maxlags_rule":"fixed","use_correction":true},"coefficients":[{"name":"const","t_stat":-0.77793806964563,"p_value":0.43871601689821427,"ci95_low":-0.0984637481140075,"estimate":-0.02769749207193234,"ci95_high":0.04306876397014282,"std_error":0.03560372368015006},{"name":"dlog(provider_intents_volume_usd|SRC-LLAMA)","t_stat":6.014378227003388,"p_value":4.146222767879358e-08,"ci95_low":0.5719403297667323,"estimate":0.8542493147420771,"ci95_high":1.136558299717422,"std_error":0.14203451836578282}],"adj_r_squared":0.42788682314944804,"p_value_usage":"p-values are recorded for the declared output contract only; no variable, lag, sample or specification choice was made from them (no p-value-driven search anywhere in this estimator).","condition_number":2.784927388082539},"diagnostics_version":1,"residual_diagnostics":{"acf":{"acf":[1.0,0.01139980494141535,0.06396609382135686,-0.06650875632208578,-0.07532561189600043,-0.0753648841560947,0.05567503507415366,0.010548883901834434],"test":"acf","status":"computed","confint":[[1.0,1.0],[-0.1963559619087122,0.2191555717915429],[-0.14381667029017076,0.27174885793288445],[-0.27513974484741044,0.14212223220323889],[-0.2848697367921533,0.13421851300015245],[-0.28607450271644824,0.13534473440425887],[-0.15619487146355612,0.26754494161186343],[-0.20195156189824343,0.22304932970191227]],"settings":{"fft":false,"alpha":"0.05","nlags":7,"bartlett_confint":true},"series_key":"ols_residuals","null_hypothesis":"no autocorrelation"},"note":"residual battery on the fitted design; the HAC covariance is the preregistered response to any rejection and no observation is removed or repaired","influence":{"test":"cooks_distance","policy":"flagged observations are reported and 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covariance","max_cooks_distance":1.1490254683093104},"ljung_box":{"test":"ljung_box","alpha":"0.05","status":"computed","results":[{"lag":3,"lb_stat":0.8094335781808204,"lb_p_value":0.3682877664693871,"interpretation":"no autocorrelation indicated at this lag (weak evidence)","decision_at_alpha":"fail_to_reject_null"},{"lag":7,"lb_stat":2.2111496594309865,"lb_p_value":0.8192238468652956,"interpretation":"no autocorrelation indicated at this lag (weak evidence)","decision_at_alpha":"fail_to_reject_null"}],"settings":{"lags":[3,7],"model_df_rule":"parameters_count","model_df_resolved":2},"series_key":"ols_residuals","null_hypothesis":"no autocorrelation up to the declared lag"},"residuals":{"max":0.8900219743381916,"min":-2.38030973210424,"mean":7.484649604214538e-18,"nobs":89,"note":"residuals are the OLS residuals y - X beta of the fitted design; the HAC covariance changes inference, not 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"rationale":"Breusch-Pagan is the methodology's named example ('Estimation and diagnostics'); the fitted design columns are the heteroskedasticity regressors, no extra series is introduced, and the preregistered response to a rejection is the already-declared HAC covariance - no reweighting, no outlier removal."},"f_p_value":0.048998117161143426,"lm_p_value":0.0483069829034806,"series_key":"ols_residuals","interpretation":"heteroskedasticity indicated; the preregistered HAC covariance is the declared response, nothing is reweighted or removed","null_hypothesis":"homoskedasticity","decision_at_alpha":"reject_null"}}}},"artifact_sha256":{"fit_manifest":"926b1b82da7097585391ac55f31a51ee002946819e2ff488ae3a5d4540d27abb","readiness_report":"3c4b44243f01907c56efbbddba7f68af98ca8dc0ab87171404f023414d4fd600","diagnostics_report":"d3c360b15fef62bd851e2491ec08436586e2eae611d96c8b3cd041320bcd1c0c","publication_approval":"285bc1fe50a7062f439259c96419790cd71bad90b949926729a88fbd50315cf2"},"approval":{"decision":"approve","reviewer":"ILYUTKICK (owner) via interactive ZCode role-A coordinator session, 2026-11-14","approval_type":"model_run_publication_approval","review_reference":"NI-079 final local release acceptance (PR #102): owner instruction to complete all acceptance stages; fit admission READY_WITH_LIMITS with the mechanical-construction limitation displayed; readiness 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